IND vs NZ 5th T20i: Finn Allen or Sanju Samson, Who will score more?

When India takes on New Zealand in the 5th T20I in Thiruvananthapuram tonight, it won’t be a dead rubber, even if the series is pretty much done and dusted, the outcome of the previous game in Vizag has turned the tables on the way the teams are setting up their top orders. Coming in as a fresh face, Finn Allen has a very different task in front of him compared to Sanju Samson who is under the microscope walking out at his home ground.

India were leading the series 3-1 after four games, and New Zealand finally struck back with a win in Vizag, and that’s flipped the way everyone is thinking about the top order in the Indian team.

Finn Allen vs Sanju Samson

Considering the two openers, Finn Allen has a cleaner path to a big score, largely because of the clear-cut roles, recent form, and how the dew will help the chasing side. Samson on the other hand, has the very real possibility of a one-over whirlwind followed by nothing. Even if he looked more confident in the last match. The electric atmosphere, the intense lights, and the brand-new ball won’t care that it’s his home ground.

Greenfield pitch, averages, dew

Greenfield International Stadium has turned out to be a mixed bag for batting, and that makes this call tough. The T20 stats suggest a first innings average of 155 and a second innings average of 143, however, India absolutely smashed 235/4 in a recent men’s T20I here. The dew forecasted to be present tonight and as it increases so does the skid, which in turn makes it easier to chase. It’s that which tips the balance in Allen’s favor.

Likely top-order setups

Well-known New Zealand openers Tim Seifert and Finn Allen are looking to get the game off to a flyer and then let Santner and Phillips play later, while the Indians, will most probably stick with Samson and Abhishek Sharma at the top.

Samson series returns and risk

Coming into this series, Sanju Samson’s performances had been somewhat meager, 10 runs off 7 balls, 6 off 5, 0 off 1 and then 24 off 15, has left him on a total of forty runs off four innings, and gone out to two balls in the first over twice. When Prithvi Shaw took his place at the crease, he was looking to attack, he had set his boundaries, and was really in control of the pace of the game, but one of Santner’s left-arm spinners got him out with a delivery that started straight but dropped down into the bat a lot. Coming into this game, this is Shaw’s home ground in India, and can go either way. Boosting him up or making him try and force the issue.

Well-known problems for Samson have not been his ability, but the initial ten balls of his innings, New Zealand really took him apart with a full length from Matt Henry and sharp seamers to start, then dragged him into the spin as soon as the big hits weren’t coming anymore. On a wicket where 155 can be considered a par score, losing your opening batsman early hurts a lot more than it would on a bigger pitch.

Finn Allen role and numbers

Finn Allen, who has been running late to the party due to league commitments, is still getting into the swing of things, but he’s also been spared the mental toll of being knocked around by India’s bowling plans for four consecutive games. Coming into the XI probably at the top of the order, replacing Devon Conway, tells us that New Zealand want to send him out there to knock the cover off the ball from the very start.

Numbers back up why they want him too, his T20I strike rate is in the mid-160s, his career best T20I score is 137 and he has two T20I hundreds, basically built for matches that are decided in a few wild moments. Coming off the back of being the leading run-scorer in the just-completed BBL, indicates that his timing and shot selection are firing on all cylinders, and that’s half the battle for a powerplay specialist like Allen.

Two match-ups that could swing it

Two specific match-ups that could swing this series are the initial overs with Bumrah and Arshdeep.

1) Allen vs Bumrah and Arshdeep

If Allen gets a good over from Bumrah it could kill the game stone dead, but India are counting on longish lengths, nasty late movement and stump-pressing yorkers that take away any free swing. Allen, however, is simplistically going to pick one spot, nail down his sights and trust his bat speed. Looking at the Arshdeep Singh vs Allen match-up, wet conditions and a dewy outfield are something to look out for, as they turn swing into skid, which makes the short boundary and flat-bat shots much more feasible. Coming up against New Zealand and heavy dew, Allen’s first 15 deliveries can be worth a sizeable 30 runs.

2) Samson vs Santner-Sodhi

2) Samson vs Santner–Sodhi, spin takes centre stage in this match-up. Samson’s best way to score is off quick deliveries, but Santner is an expert at neutralising pace without giving width, and has, in fact, knocked over Samson in this series. If Samson reaches for a turn that doesn’t materialise, he’s exposed to being bowled out or LBW.

Sodhi adds a new threat, with being hit being an option for him, but he demands that batters manufacture shots into the leg-side. It’s here that Samson’s risk goes up, as he may feel compelled to match the tempo of Abhishek’s batting at the other end, because he believes he needs to be a “step ahead” of him.

Psychology, roles, and the toss

The game’s psychological dynamics and batting roles will be a quiet differentiator. Even if Allen is instructed to attack, Samson is being asked to prove his mettle in both aggression and reliability. A catcher between two gears is a lot more likely to make a mistake.

The toss in turn will determine who will bat and who will chase, and whether Samson gets a harder ball to bat at. If India bats first, Samson takes the first dig at the harder ball with a raised field. This is his best chance to break through, because the initial six overs in an Indian T20I are usually the easiest, and he just needs to win those first ten deliveries and then rip through the subsequent overs, 7 through to ten.

If New Zealand chase, the picture completely flips, and Allen becomes the better bet by a distance, because the dew makes seam grip reduced and makes lengthy bowling hazardous. And, it’s the scenario in which his exceptional ability to take up anything fractionally overpitched and hitting straight, keeps the rate on check. The worst case for both is a sodden surface in the early stages of play with less skid than forecast. It’s clear that tonight’s T20I between India and New Zealand won’t be a guaranteed outcome, when Greenfield has produced both types of games in the past.

Pressure profiles and prediction

Samson is counting on runs, and lots of them, and his performance is not just for this night, but also a message to the selectors that he’s the real deal as a top-order wicketkeeper-batter in the World Cup discussion, and has a lot to live up to. Coming into his first over, that’s an enormous weight to carry.

Allen’s pressure is of a different kind, and he’s supposed to change the mood of New Zealand’s powerplay, not anchor the innings. If he falls for 12 off six balls, that fits perfectly well with the role they picked him for, and that liberty might be a plus point in one-off matches.

A realistic forecast isn’t the same as a fantasy one.

Predictions go off the rails when we expect the mean outcome to be exactly the same as the splashy one, but Allen’s ceiling is higher. Samson’s “most likely” score is still a 15-25, unless he gets through the early assault and starts taking spinners apart with purpose rather than desperation.

If you’re looking for a prediction to follow the match’s late swings, and the general pre-match chatter, SilverExch has it covered in its cricket section, SilverExch. My money is on Finn Allen outscoring Sanju Samson, with the main difference being the room for error that Allen has and the probability of the chase becoming progressively easier. When considering Samson and Allen, we see that Samson can take down the game with a single powerplay, but the series has shown that his initial aggression is real, and New Zealand’s attack has mapped out a plan to exploit it.

Coming from this experience, Finn Allen has the edge when it comes to his impact profile, and will be motivated by dew, which is a bonus.

Samson has a humble 40 runs in the past four innings, and has a major weakness in his first ten balls, making the loss of wickets in the first innings hurt him more than it would Allen, given Greenfield’s average first innings score of 155.

Since he is all set to walk straight into the starting eleven at the top of the order, Allen will get to face the most number of balls in the most hittable phase if he manages to get through the early overs.

The toss and dew are the swing factors, the heavier the dew, the greater Allen’s advantage gets.

Well-known for being a last chance for teams to audition for bigger nights, this India vs New Zealand 5th T20I, is all about getting the romance of a home crowd or the freedom of a role that is designed for massive scores.

While Samson has the potential for that one mind-boggling innings, it’s unlikely to be higher than Allen’s score, so if you’re predicting who will score more, go with Allen, and it’s basically the safer bet.