Jos Buttler in the spotlight: can England’s talisman flip the script in the biggest game of the group?

Jos Buttler isn’t told what’s on the line this evening. When your tournament’s been a series of beginnings which haven’t turned into proper innings, going out to bat feels like a judgement, and not merely another powerplay.

England are already in the semi-finals, however this game against New Zealand still has a knockout feel to it. First place is what’s being fought for, and with it, the opportunity to get a simpler semi-final path.

For New Zealand, it’s much more straightforward: they win and are certain to go through; they lose badly, and discussion of net run-rate will begin to be loud. Pakistan will be observing, with calculators at the ready, but New Zealand will be only thinking about taking control of the game from the start.

And for England, the most straightforward route to control goes through the man who opens the batting. Harry Brook might be captain in this World Cup, but if Jos Buttler plays one of his best innings, England’s potential gets much better – in a way no adjustment to the team can equal.

A Closer Look

Why this still feels like England’s most important group match

England’s two Super 8 victories have been good, but not perfect. They’ve won tight moments, depended on individual skill, and found ways through difficult periods – useful skills in tournaments, though not necessarily a plan you’d want to repeat in a semi-final.

This is the last practice run against a side that won’t give you chances. New Zealand won’t give you ten balls of bad pace, and they won’t be worried if they lose a wicket early on.

Also, the bracket position which players pretend isn’t important, until it really is. Finish first, and you avoid a team in form in the semi-finals; finish second, and you could find yourself up against the strongest team in the competition.

That situation also affects team selection. England can change players, but won’t want to. They’ll want a night where their best eleven looks as if it suits this pitch.

Colombo under lights

The R. Premadasa Stadium rarely allows teams to play without effort. The straight boundaries can seem very large, and the pitch usually becomes an examination of “hit the gap, run hard” when the shine has gone and the ball stops coming on well.

If it grips, spinners don’t even need a lot of spin; they only need enough to interfere with timing. This is how you get catches to deep midwicket and deep cover which seem easy, but still determine matches.

If dew appears, it changes the feeling rather than the basics. The ball slides, mis-hits go for runs, and captains begin to think about chasing, because defending with a wet ball makes yorkers into half-volleys.

Whichever happens, the middle overs will decide how the game goes. If a team wins overs 7 to 15, they usually win the match in Colombo.

Jos Buttler’s tournament up to now: numbers, not talk

The unpleasant truth is that Jos Buttler hasn’t had a proper innings yet. His highest score in this World Cup has been 26, and his most recent scores have been in single figures too often for a player who usually controls the speed of an innings.

It’s not just the runs he hasn’t scored; it’s what those early dismissals do to England’s arrangement. England become a little more careful, the risk is moved down the order, and the “we’ll explode later” plan begins to feel like hope.

When a batter like Buttler is quiet, the opposition’s whole field plan becomes easier. You can set attacking fields for Salt, make the singles for Brook harder, and believe that pressure will do the rest.

England’s team has strongly supported him, and that is important. In tournament cricket, teams don’t go on backing players in bad form, unless they think the next innings is close.

New Zealand’s first twelve balls plan

New Zealand have two strong feelings as a bowling team: keep the ball in the right places, and make you hit to the large areas. They don’t always chase ten-wicket victories; they chase restriction, which is why they are happy to win without a large number of wickets.

Expect Matt Henry to shape the first over around one question: can he make Buttler hit across the line early? Full enough to tempt a drive, straight enough to make bowled and lbw possible, and with a field which makes singles difficult.

If Henry gets even a little movement, New Zealand will make the most of it. They’ll keep third man and point busy, protect the straight boundary, and invite the risky shot into the longer square side.

If the pitch is slow, don’t be surprised if Mitchell Santner uses spin early – especially if Salt plays fast. It isn’t about turning things around completely, but about altering the tempo and getting yourself to score runs.

Lockie Ferguson is the other important factor. He’s there to make pulling and hitting flat feel awkward, and then to bowl a slower ball once you’ve already decided what to do.

Buttler versus pressure

The battle within the game: Buttler versus the pressure

This match will most likely be won by whichever side deals with the pressure better – England’s batters, or New Zealand’s bowlers. The finest New Zealand Twenty20 teams have constantly been skilled at making opponents feel as though they are behind in the game, without actually taking any wickets.

That pressure is most effective against players who desire boundaries in predictable areas. If you bowl into the pitch, and defend deep midwicket and long-on, you’re effectively inviting the batter to hit over extra cover, or to try to get the ball to third man with purpose.

Buttler, when in form, disrupts that pattern. He can lap pace, hit spin high and straight, and open the bat face late enough to get boundaries that fields can’t guard without allowing singles.

So New Zealand’s strategy won’t be to ‘outsmart’ him for twenty balls. It will be to prevent his first easy hit, and then to see if irritation leads to a poor shot.

Can Jos Buttler change things? The two corrections that matter

For Jos Buttler, the correction isn’t likely to be one single technical change. It’s two small choices, made repeatedly: to choose the correct ball to attack, and to keep the innings going when a boundary isn’t available.

The first is speed. Buttler does not need eighteen off his opening eight balls to be a threat; he needs to avoid the dot-ball problem which causes a risky hit. In Colombo, a ‘calm’ ten off eight can be an excellent beginning if it includes four singles and a couple of twos.

The second is shot choice against spin. If Santner and Sodhi bowl to that difficult length, Buttler needs to be happy to take the single at the start of the over, and to have faith that a boundary will come later, instead of attempting to create one at once.

There is also a simple psychological aspect: to decide on a plan before the ball is delivered. When form is absent, batters often decide late; that half-second of doubt is where edges happen, and lofted shots don’t get enough on them.

If Buttler can give himself twenty balls, he has already altered the match. New Zealand’s pressure is made to work before you have settled.

England’s support for Buttler

Phil Salt’s part in this is huge, and not only because he scores quickly. Salt gives England the ability to play a normal powerplay even if Buttler begins slowly.

If Salt gets going early, New Zealand can’t restrict both ends. The bowlers must seek a wicket or alter the field, and that little change often creates the first easy boundary ball for the more cautious opener.

Harry Brook at No. 3 is the other vital support. Brook’s recent form means England don’t need to worry if Buttler is twelve off twelve at the end of the powerplay; they can still create a 160-plus innings with clever middle-overs batting.

The important thing is that England can’t lose both Buttler and Salt early, and still expect Colombo to be forgiving. New Zealand’s spinners become twice as difficult to hit when you are three wickets down and protecting the wickets.

The team choice linked to Buttler

The team choice which quietly relates to Buttler

England’s most important team choice isn’t a showy one. It’s whether they go in with an extra specialist spinner to win the middle overs, or an extra fast bowler to deal with dew and end-of-innings bowling.

That choice is linked to Buttler because England’s perfect plan is simple: a good start, pressure in the middle, and finish with pace. But that only works smoothly if the start isn’t a recovery operation.

If Jos Buttler gives them even a good thirty-five off twenty-five, England can afford to choose for control. If he fails early again, England’s ‘control’ choice can suddenly appear to be short on batting cover.

New Zealand’s team choice is more obvious. If the pitch appears dry, they’ll require Santner, and another spin bowler, plus their best two fast bowlers to use with both the new ball and for the final four overs.

What a good innings from Buttler does for the game in terms of tactics

Should Buttler play well, New Zealand won’t be able to stick to their planned bowling in the middle of the innings. Santner’s overs will be about stopping runs, not taking wickets, and their field will have to spread out sooner than they’d want.

A quick start will also change how England can use their spinners. If England are defending 175 instead of 155, they can use fielders positioned as though for slip catches, in the infield, and make New Zealand hit towards the long sides of the ground.

It will also put more pressure on New Zealand’s opening batsmen. Finn Allen and Tim Seifert won’t be able to get themselves in slowly if they need to score at ten runs an over on a pitch which turns the ball; they’ll be forced to take chances earlier, which will play into England’s hands when it comes to taking wickets.

In brief, a Buttler innings isn’t simply about the runs he adds; it alters the sort of match it becomes.

If Buttler is out cheaply again

England are still able to win even if Buttler doesn’t score a lot. Brook has proved he can bat through difficult periods, and England’s lower order has enough power to get to a respectable score at the end.

But the downside is worry. Without Buttler’s stability at the beginning, England’s innings is likely to have a long, quiet period where New Zealand’s bowlers are in charge.

That’s where Colombo is dangerous: a couple of dot balls here don’t just reduce your total; they make you go for it in the last five overs, and New Zealand are very good at defending when you’ve got to hit every ball.

England’s bowlers are certainly able to defend moderate scores on this pitch, but they don’t want to have to be defending “moderate scores” when the semi-finals are next.

New Zealand’s approach and NRR safety

New Zealand’s approach: get through to the semi-finals, but don’t give anyone an advantage

New Zealand will say they’re aiming to win – and they should be. Winning makes everything easier and will probably put them at the top of the group.

But their second aim, which they won’t mention, is to not lose badly. Their net run rate gives them a benefit, and in a group as close as this, that benefit could be the thing that means a place in the semi-finals, or going home.

This means their bowling plans will be more careful than normal, in one way: they’d rather give away seven singles than a boundary which lets the batting side get on top.

Against a batsman like Buttler, this caution is a danger. If you defend everything, you could end up giving him what he wants – slow bowling and easy singles which let him get settled.

Turning-point: one over, one decision

The turning-point of the match: one over, one decision, one shot.

Games of this kind often depend on a single over which doesn’t look important when you watch the best bits later. An over which goes for fourteen runs against spin, when the batsman didn’t hit the ball properly, or an over which goes for four runs where three singles were not taken and the pressure went up.